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NASCAR at Talladega 2018: Odds, fantasy advice, prediction, sleepers, drivers to watch

NASCAR at Talladega 2018: Odds, fantasy advice, prediction, sleepers, drivers to watch
09 May
11:48

Even though Ford saw its seven-race restrictor plate winning streak come to an end in the Daytona 500, a race in which Aric Almirola was half-a-lap away from victory, no manufacturer has dominated the restrictor-plate tracks of Daytona and Talladega in recent years more than Ford. 

Over the past 29 races at Daytona and Talladega, Ford has won 16 of them, including the past five at the Alabama restrictor-plate track. 

Earlier this season at a similar track in Daytona, race-favorite Brad Keselowski won the unofficial opening race of the season “The Clash” followed by Ford teammates Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Kurt Busch. 

Austin Dillon and Darrell “Bubba” Wallace, Jr. ended up going 1-2 for Chevy in the Great American Race but it was Blaney that led the most laps. The last time the Cup Series was in Alabama, Keselowski took the checkers and Logano and Blaney led the most laps. 

Our pick to win Sunday goes against the Ford trend. While Denny Hamlin most recently won at Talladega in 2014, he is known as a restrictor-plate king. Hamlin has the second most laps led among active drivers at Talladega (291). Including non-points events, Hamlin has six wins in restrictor plate contests since 2014. 

What are the betting odds for NASCAR at Talladega?

Brad Keselowski 6/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Chase Elliott 12/1
Kyle Busch 12/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Ryan Blaney 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Kyle Larson 18/1
Jimmie Johnson 18/1
Erik Jones 25/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Alex Bowman 25/1
Aric Almirola 25/1
Austin Dillon 40/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Daniel Suarez 40/1
Trevor Bayne 40/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
William Byron 50/1
Darrell Wallace Jr. 60/1
Ty Dillon 100/1
Kasey Kahne 100/1
Chris Buescher 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 200/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Field (all others) 30/1

Odds via Westgate

Which NASCAR drivers are best for fantasy lineup at Talladega?

Jamie McMurray leads all active drivers in top fives at Talladega with eight and Kurt Busch leads all active drivers in top 10s with 18.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (nine starts) leads all active drivers in the Cup Series in average finishing position at Talladega with a 10.4 including one win. 

Paul Menard was sixth and led a lap at Daytona this year, his first race in the Wood Brothers’ No. 21 Ford that Ryan Blaney wheeled to a runner-up finish the year prior. Menard has finished in the top 13 at Talladega in five of the past six races and owns a 7.6 average finish since the Fall 2013 race when completing the full race laps. 

At longer tracks such as Talladega, leading laps aren’t as important in fantasy as place-differential is. Drivers who qualify near the end of the 40-car field have the most upside but also have higher risk for crashes due to traffic. Michael McDowell, Matt DiBenedetto, and veteran Truck Series driver Timothy Peters, who owns two ‘Dega wins and is making his first Cup start, are all great buy-low options. 

Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nascar/news/nascar-talladega-2018-betting-odds-draftkings-fantasy-advice-prediction-sleepers-stats-starting-lineup-geico-500/18cp5afw36amt1g7r0abcyh55j

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