Monday, 21 January 2019

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds, picks: Advanced computer model loving Denny Hamlin, fading Erik Jones

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds, picks: Advanced computer model loving Denny Hamlin, fading Erik Jones
09 Jun

The 2018 NASCAR schedule continues Sunday at 2 p.m. ET with the FireKeepers Casino 400, a stop at the two-mile track at Michigan International Speedway. Kevin Harvick is the favorite for this event, going off with 5-2 odds. He’s followed closely by Kyle Busch at 9-2 and Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson at 5-1. Before you lock in any kind of bet, you need to see what SportsLine’s prediction model has to say.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure’s DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

The model has made several huge calls in NASCAR this year, nailing the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 as well as Harvick’s win at the KC Masterpiece 400. It also nailed five of the top 10 at Bristol and two of the top five at Daytona. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now that the Michigan field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One surprising pick from the model for this Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400: Denny Hamlin, who is getting 15-1 odds, finishes in the top three even though Vegas doesn’t view him as a top-five contender. 

Hamlin is a two-time winner at this track and finished in the top five in this event last year. He’s in prime position to make a run at the title, so he’s a value pick you should be all over.

And in a surprise: Erik Jones, who is getting the seventh-best odds for this event, doesn’t even finish in the top 10.

It’s a surprising pick because Jones finished third in the fall race at Michigan last year. But the model has taken into account that he has no wins and just one top-five finish this year. He’s a pick to steer completely clear of at Michigan.

The model also says two other drivers going off with odds longer than 20-1 make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 FireKeepers Casino 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 5-2
Kyle Busch 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Kyle Larson 5-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Erik Jones 15-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Chase Elliott 15-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1



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